Bem-vindo ao Trader Education Corner. Nosso objetivo é ajudá-lo a obter o máximo proveito de sua experiência de aprendizagem, fornecendo gráficos, materiais suplementares e exames para avaliar onde você está em sua jornada em andamento como comerciante bem sucedido. Para mais informações sobre o Trader Education Corner, leia as nossas perguntas frequentes. Para fazer um exame ou tabelas de acesso e materiais suplementares, clique aqui. Grande dinheiro, menos risco: opções de comércio Por: Larson, Mark (Não requer registro) Construir riqueza em qualquer mercado: como criar renda consistente e confiável da bolsa Por: Ross Jardine Capturar lucros com análise técnica: regras práticas para Explorando o estilo do castiçal, do indicador e do gerenciamento de dinheiro Por: Sylvain Vervoort Passos simples para a disciplina de negociação Por: Toni Hansen Alguns pensamentos Pós-Brexit Em nenhuma ordem particular, como I8217m escrevendo o topo da minha cabeça: 1. Então, a libra tem Caiu para um mínimo de 30 anos, a negociação foi interrompida no mercado de ações japonês, outros mercados estão mergulhando, David Cameron está renunciando, a Escócia quer outro referendo de independência, Sinn Fein está pressionando a reunificação irlandesa, Nigel Farage foi na TV e disse, basicamente, 8220Esto, lembre-se quando dissemos que íamos colocar esse dinheiro da UE no nosso serviço de saúde. Nós mentimos, 8221 e a UE está dizendo ao Reino Unido, você quer sair, tudo bem, mas let8217s fazem isso rápido. Sim, bem-vindo ao Brexit 2. Se você quer uma visão interna desta bagunça, sugiro que Charlie Stross8217 tome. Sua linha de abertura é 8220Okay, então os idiotas fizeram isso que eles quebraram o Reino Unido, 8221 que, tanto quanto eu posso ver, é inteiramente exato. 3. Do lado de fora, eu gostaria de dizer que parece totalmente insondável, mas isso não ocorre porque, oi, Donald Trump é o candidato do GOP para o presidente aqui. Os mesmos impulsos intolerantes, emocionais, don8217t-need-to-know-facts que impulsionaram o voto de Brexit para 52 colocaram Trump na corrida presidencial geral. A ironia é que alguns desses eleitores do Reino Unido aparentemente estão surpresos com o fato de terem carregado o dia. As pessoas de notícias no Reino Unido estão agora nos dizendo que um número razoável de pessoas que votaram 8220Leave8221 didn8217t realmente pensam que isso aconteceria. Então, qual foi o dano ao votar por isso. A Cornwall, que votou para sair, diz agora que o governo do Reino Unido deve substituir os subsídios da UE. Boa sorte com isso, Cornwall. Talvez se arraste atrás do NHS por esse dinheiro. Deve-se notar que todas as coisas horríveis que estão ocorrendo atualmente por causa de Brexit foram chamadas pelos próprios especialistas que Michael Gove afirmou, corretamente, infelizmente, que os eleitores estavam cansados. Isso parece sugerir que, talvez, para referência futura, os especialistas possam ser ouvidos de tempos em tempos. Também que uma votação de protesto ainda é uma votação e, como os eleitores de Nader aprenderam (ou, infelizmente, didn8217t), você não deveria votar em protesto se você não estiver disposto a viver com as implicações de seu protesto, as implicações, tendo sido descritas por você, Você sabe, especialistas. (É aí que alguns eleitores de Nader giram e queixam-se isso. Eles totalmente não quiseram lançar as eleições para Bush. Caras, sente-se fodido ... já.) 4. Para fazer isso sobre os EUA por um momento: poderia Os mesmos impulsos intolerantes, emocionais, don8217t-need-to-know-facts que puxaram Brexit sobre a linha realmente colocaram Trump na Casa Branca Eles poderiam, com certeza, não é provável. Porque a) a vantagem democrata no Colégio Eleitoral, b) Trump até hoje executando a campanha geral mais incompetente na história moderna da política dos EUA, mas ainda há lições relevantes a serem aprendidas com a Brexit. Em primeiro lugar, que ganhou porque as pessoas que votaram o máximo disso eram exatamente Trump8217s demográficas aqui nos EUA: pessoas brancas mais velhas de áreas economicamente instáveis 8212 e elas acabaram em vigor, votando em números substancialmente maiores do que, digamos, a Eleitores mais jovens do Reino Unido, que estavam esmagadoramente por permanecer, mas quem não votou em nenhum lugar perto do número de eleitores mais velhos. Qual é a segunda coisa, é claro: pessoal, quando se trata de política, se você não votar. O que você acha que significa meio pau. Aqui nos EUA, as pessoas que amam Trump vão aparecer no dia das eleições. 100 certeza dessa previsão. Nós sabemos que eles vão, porque já fizeram. E você pode dizer, sim, mas não é suficiente deles, e eu vou te dizer, foda-se você e seu traseiro complacente, eu quero que ele perca em um maldito deslizamento de terra. Eu quero ele elegerado eletronicamente da órbita. É a única maneira de ter certeza. Todos precisam votar. É realmente importante isso. Com isso dito, deve-se notar que Trump atualmente está espancando que ele acha que o Brexit, que está mergulhando a economia britânica em uma trincheira e dando um corte de cabelo à economia global, é perfeitamente fabuloso. Ele literalmente apenas disse que pensa que o Brexit é ótimo porque a queda da libra significa que mais pessoas irão ao seu campo de golfe. O que eu acho que é a entrada padrão de ouro do século XXI no 8220fiddling, enquanto a Roma lança 8221 sorteios. Então, talvez, talvez. A combinação da implosão econômica e do excesso de tristeza do Trump8217 será o que convence qualquer conservador fiscal ainda segurando Clinton para beliscar o nariz e votar em novembro, porque ela não é realmente um caldeirão de estupidez econômica. Talvez, provavelmente, provavelmente Não We8217ll ver. Então, sim: Trump poderia levá-lo. Brexit nos mostra como. Não se arrisque. E votação. Pelo bem de fuck8217s. 5. Para obter informações pessoais por um momento, no Twitter foi perguntado se, ou não, como americano, a Brexit realmente teria um impacto na minha vida. Sim, certamente faz Por um lado, eu vendo livros no Reino Unido, através de minhas editoras do Reino Unido (Gollancz e Tor UK), e eu pago em libras esterlinas, que atualmente está sendo perfurado na garganta, em termos de taxa de câmbio. Por outro lado, a economia do Reino Unido é susceptível de mergulhar em uma recessão, o que tornará mais difícil a venda de livros lá, de modo que não é ótimo também. Eu também comercializo outros territórios em todo o mundo, particularmente na Europa, e a Brexit é uma força desestabilizadora, o que provavelmente não é bom para mim. E é claro que a economia dos EUA provavelmente também terá algum tipo de interferência. Mas espere, mais alguns anos eu gosto de muitos americanos terem investimentos em ações de aposentadoria, que procuram ter um pummel de tamanho de 2008. Devo também notar que a recessão global de 20088217 foi bastante terrível para a publicação, o campo I8217m, e os escritores, em particular, ficaram altos e difíceis, então, se as coisas vão para o sul em geral, isso também torna as coisas mais difíceis para as pessoas no meu campo. Então, sim, direta e indiretamente, Brexit vai ter um impacto na minha vida, como um americano e também como escritor de trabalho. Obrigado, Reino Unido. As boas notícias para mim, como é, é que no ano passado eu assinei contratos de publicação de longo prazo com Tor (para livros eletrônicos impressos) e Audible (para áudio). Esses contratos basicamente funcionam como um hedge econômico para mim, o que é uma coisa que eu inteiramente pretendia que fosse quando os assinei 8212 e não contra o Brexit, para ser claro, mas contra a instabilidade geral no mundo editorial. Mas eles também trabalham para a Brexit. Bem como qualquer precipitação econômica que possa resultar disso. Então, ai, vá para mim e minha natureza fundamentalmente fiscalmente conservadora. 6. Mas, digamos, seja honesto, se a economia mundial for merda, meus contratos não vão me salvar mais do que eles vão salvar alguém, eles apenas retardam ligeiramente minha queda no abismo. O melhor cenário neste momento é simplesmente que o Reino Unido é ferrado por um tempo, e o resto da economia global roda em torno dele. O pior cenário é, bem, um pouco mais sombrio, economicamente e de outra forma. I8217m esperando o melhor cenário (desculpe, Reino Unido). Eu planejarei financeiramente outras coisas. (No entanto, as pessoas nos EUA, etc 8212, por favor, não entre em pânico sobre suas contas de aposentadoria ainda, a menos que você esteja, de fato, prestes a se aposentar. Todo o ponto das contas de aposentadoria é o dinheiro da meia neles e depois deixe-os Faça o que acontecerá. Haverá altos e baixos. Isto é um baixo. Haverá, espero, ser mais vendidos.) Para meus amigos no Reino Unido que têm que lidar com isso diretamente: minhas simpatias. Que a dor seja relativamente breve. Você pode acampar no meu gramado se precisar. Para meus amigos nos EUA: Fucking vote in November, já. Postar a navegação Realmente That8217s seu comentário 8220 A sua metáfora bem compreendida não é factualmente correta8221 Eu selecionei a primeira parte deste parágrafo para copiar e colar como algo I8217d citar muito, então a próxima parte, e então eu tive o parágrafo inteiro porque realmente, sim , Tudo isso. 8220Que é a segunda coisa, é claro: pessoal, quando se trata de política, se você não quiser votar, o que você acha que significa "pau". Aqui nos EUA, as pessoas que amam Trump vão aparecer no dia das eleições. 100 certeza dessa previsão. Nós sabemos que eles vão, porque já fizeram. E você pode dizer, sim, mas não é suficiente deles, e eu vou te dizer, foda-se você e seu traseiro complacente, eu quero que ele perca em um maldito deslizamento de terra. Eu quero ele elegerado eletronicamente da órbita. É a única maneira de ter certeza. Todos precisam votar. É realmente importante isso. 22221 Eu diria que parte do empurrão é que nenhum dos lados fez uma campanha bem. O Remain correu um assustado, destaca os negativos de sair da campanha e acusando qualquer um que sugeriu que era racista e ignorante (não as posições que provavelmente ganhariam as pessoas). O Leave deixou um incômodo, destacou os negativos da campanha restante, juntamente com a possibilidade de usar o dinheiro atualmente enviado para a Europa para recuperar o NHS (o que, claro, a Farage agora diz que isn8217t provavelmente acontecerá). Houve muito poucas campanhas positivas, ou apresentando debates úteis. Nem o lado (nem a UE) realmente aumentou muito a burocracia bizantina, o sentimento de que muitos eleitores têm que não existe uma verdadeira transparência no sistema ou exatamente quais direitos políticos democráticos você tem como membro da UE e exatamente quanto você diz É uma forma de sistema de governo. Muito deixou muitas pessoas com o sentimento de ter que equilibrar a perspectiva de líderes políticos não confiáveis no governo das nações e líderes políticos não confiáveis em um governo em outro país. O que eu diria deixa no momento não surpreendente que as pessoas são mais propensas a ir pelo menos eu conheço esses bastardos não confiáveis8221. Em muitos aspectos, este é um pedaço significativo do voto público britânico contra todos os principais líderes e corporações do partido político. O que pode ser visto como um voto de protesto em geral, mas acho que a questão será qual é a quantidade de pessoas que vão ver, e como será tratada, eu estou tentando pensar em uma vez em toda a história registrada quando o isolacionismo tem demorado Benefícios para um povo e I8217m falhando. O Egito tentou permanecer independente do poder romano. O Japão tentou permanecer isolado de TODOS. Nós até temos um exemplo moderno para aprender na Coréia do Norte. E, no entanto, as pessoas continuam tentando. Isso me faz um pouco nervoso. Eu trabalho com alguém que pode perder um emprego por causa desta BS. É horrível e está triste e atordoado. Em outro site, alguém citou Karl Popper: 8220. Qualquer governo que possa ser removido tem um forte incentivo para agir de forma a que as pessoas se contentem com isso. E este incentivo se perdeu se o governo não puder ser tão facilmente eliminado.8221 Eu observo que Sanders finalmente fez a coisa decente e disse que ele votaria para Clinton, se isso parasse o Trump. Esta será uma eleição de companheiros de cama estranhos, 8211 I8217m, não mais interessado em estar do mesmo lado que os Irmãos Koch como a próxima pessoa sã 8211, mas meu medo, levando às eleições americanas, era que a esquerda repetiria o erro De Hitler, e tente usar sua ameaça como uma oportunidade de se empurrar para o poder ou obter o que eles realmente desejam. Sanders, tardiamente, reconhece que sua agenda não é uma merda, se Trump aproveitar o poder, e qualquer mudança que ele queira ver acontecer, Trump é a maior ameaça. Ainda assim, não sei se os argumentos que estão sendo usados contra Trump são particularmente persuasivos para os tipos de pessoas que procuram votar Trump. Alguns são inacessíveis, muito distantes no buraco do palhaço e também convencidos de que todos os que não estão com eles querem coisas monstruosas, mas eu imagino que a maioria é como os palhaços que votaram para deixar a UE como um voto de protesto e descobriram que eles contam como um voto real 8211 Pessoas que foram deixadas para trás, as pessoas que são os perdedores dos vencedores do neoliberalismo, e as pessoas que não sabem que Trump basicamente não se importa com eles mais do que Clinton. O movimento mais inteligente de Clinton8217 seria explorar que 8211 she8217s nunca seriam o presidente do People8217s, mas ela tem uma coalizão notavelmente grande que ela poderia usar para dar uma voz às pessoas que eles sentem como eles não têm. Geoff Hart correu, meu marido e eu seguimos isso por algum tempo. Como ele ensina a história britânica, é especialmente Germain para seu trabalho. Ele agora tem que reescrever algumas de suas palestras. Ele me mencionou há semanas que a Cameron poderia ter tentado trabalhar com a UE para corrigir ou modificar algumas de suas políticas que estavam causando problemas no Reino Unido. Mas, em vez disso, ele usou Brexit como uma maneira de sair de uma crise política de sua festa, e, a partir daí, bem. Ele acabou de ferrar. I8217m incentivado pelo seu otimismo sobre os resultados em novembro, e certamente espero que você esteja certo. Você pode compartilhar seus pensamentos sobre o impacto potencial das leis relacionadas à votação aprovadas por vários estados depois que a decisão do Supremo Tribunal invalidando partes do Ato de direitos de voto. Vimos do voto de Brexit a importância de sair para votar, mas se aqueles que Votar para Hillary Clinton é incapaz de fazê-lo devido a obstáculos erguidos por essas leis, o resultado final é que nenhum voto é emitido. A supressão de eleitores na infiltração de fundos vai acontecer como resultado, mas eu ainda não tenho a certeza de qual a magnitude desse impacto. Haverá um efeito, mas a questão é, quanto grande de um Grande o suficiente para realmente importar, acho o argumento de que a UE é uma população não eleita que oprime os 8216decentos 8217 pessoas do Reino Unido um pouco ricas porque a) Eu lembro das eleições, b) O Reino Unido foi uma grande parte do problema com a UE, e isso provavelmente corre muito mais suave sem o Reino Unido tentando fodê-lo e, o mais importante, c) O Serviço Civil de Sua Majestade82 também não está eleito, e ninguém no governo do Reino Unido Fundamentalmente dá uma merda sobre os eleitores também. É uma folha de figueira farcica, não mais verdadeira do que não há empregos porque os mexicanos tomam-nos (e então sentem-se em torno da coleta de desemprego). Seus problemas foram resolvidos se você exigisse que seus representantes realmente o representem. George Herold diz: Ughh8230 ligeiramente não relacionado, mas eu li uma peça maravilhosa no Atlântico. (Rápido tornando-se meu site de notícias favorito8230, eu deveria enviar-lhes algum dinheiro.) It8217s uma longa leitura, mas valeu antes da votação, eu não acho que alguém8217s pregou o jeito que John Oliver fez. (Se não for feito exame de preliminares longas, pule até meio caminho, e assista a partir daí.) Como Oliver ressalta, Brexit não só faz a Grã-Bretanha muito pior em inúmeras maneiras, mas o Reino Unido ainda precisará cumprir os regulamentos da UE e Acordos, incluindo os relativos à imigração e à livre circulação de pessoas 8212, a menos que pretendam interromper o comércio. Assim, os benefícios esperados da Brexit são uma grande ilusão que não podem acontecer. Assista, também, a desastres econômicos não planejados, como (eu espero), a Airbus Industries deixando de produzir peças de fabricantes britânicos, que o IIRC fez apenas por causa de obrigações convencionais. Além disso, dado o eclipse do setor manufatureiro da Inglaterra8217 na década de 1980, espero que eles estejam horrorizados com o efeito sobre as importações da UE. Pagamento de impostos feliz eu dou cinco anos. Nesse ponto, os milenaristas que pensam em si mesmos como cidadãos da UE e nunca conheceram a Grã-Bretanha pré-1973 estarão mais a cargo e podem negociar um novo tratado (e provavelmente mais caro) para se juntar à UE novamente. Sugiro que o chamem de Tratado de Jo Cox Memorial. Enquanto isso, sim, pegue o Drumpf goose-stepper a sério, vote e equipe desses bancos de telefone. Claire: 8220 Mas esta é uma lição de que todos podemos aprender: não descarte seus oponentes. Ouça-os, não os chame nomes. Eles podem ter algumas queixas genuínas que você pode precisar abordar. Ou, se você não, pode voltar a mordê-lo no grande momento.8221 Concordado, mas operar dessa forma requer um estadual de alto calibre, o que requer auto-contenção emocional e a recusa de rotular adversários como racistas, sexistas, homofóbicos e em breve. Tais rótulos úteis de stick-on apenas inflamam o debate e mijam as pessoas. Esse invectivo pode ter até mesmo prejudicado a margem de vitória da Brexit8217. Imagine isso, as pessoas que votaram contra seus próprios interesses econômicos apesar de seus superiores sociais. Quelle Horreur Eu disse isso durante um tópico anterior sobre esse assunto, e ele repica, 8220 Quando as elites Desrespeitam a cultura dominante por tempo suficiente, a cultura dominante desrespeitará. É realmente tão simples.8221 John: Desculpe, o Chefe, mas quando se trata de Donald J. Trump, a tática habitual de enfiar a cauda no fascistracist é mais provável para os seus apoiantes, e talvez um pedaço considerável de eleitores independentes, para Vá 8220100 por cento8221 para Trump. I8217m não está dizendo que Trump ganhará, mas você pode esquecer de incomodá-lo de orbitar nesse cenário. Acordei às 4h (hora do Reino Unido), verifiquei meu telefone, acordei o marido assistiu TV durante as próximas 5 horas (eu com lágrimas fluindo) incapaz de acreditar nos nossos olhos e ouvidos tão envergonhados dos meus colegas ingleses (importante diferenciar entre as nações do Reino Unido Neste momento), muitos dos quais, agora parece, simplesmente fizeram uma votação de protesto sem pensarem em 8230 procurando algo realmente interessante para ler diz: Sim, a democracia é uma puta quando não passa pelo caminho que Miles Archer diz: em novembro , Se houver alguma chance de vencer a Califórnia por Trump, certamente vou marcar a caixa para Hillary. Eu acho que essas pessoas são extremamente improváveis e provavelmente vou votar em outra pessoa. Brexit I8217ll aposto que fica enrolado em vários tribunais por alguns anos e nada substancial acontece. Alguns banqueiros perdem seus empregos em Londres e outros são contratados em Frankfurt. Estou consternado com algumas das reações fascistracistasxenófobas provenientes de lá. Archie Bunker está vivo no Reino Unido. Theoriginalsimonb: Parece que a UE e algumas das pessoas no Reino Unido que pressionaram por 8220Leave8221 estão tentando fazer a divisão acontecer o mais rápido possível, então eu não preferiria apostar nele até 2018. Rick Moen: Muito ruim eles não poderiam mostrar a Brexit Episódio de Oliver8217s Last Week Tonight on TV no Reino Unido até que a votação foi encerrada. O que me preocupa é a possibilidade de que outros países da UE sigam o exemplo. Geert Wilders, líder do partido nacionalista holandês (especificamente, anti-ninguém que não é holandês), está empurrando para um referendo de saída holandês o mais rápido possível, e (se o Telegraph for acreditado) está liderando nas pesquisas. E praticamente todas as outras nações européias tem uma festa de xenofobia, e todos parecem estar crescendo. Tenho medo de uma repetição dos anos 19208217 e 19308217, apenas com 8220 imigrantes8221, muçulmanos e refugiados como bodes expiatórios em vez de judeus. Teremos uma terceira guerra mundial na Europa E, sim, também vejo o mesmo acontecendo nos EUA. (Ninguém se lembra do padre Coughlin) Por certo, não tenho motivos para acreditar que as pessoas que votaram em Brexit aceitarão a idéia de que as dificuldades inevitáveis resultantes da Brexit são realmente devidas a isso. Eles culparão a UE, os estrangeiros, as outras classes ou quem achar a culpa de seus problemas, a não ser eles mesmos. Como alguém que trabalha no setor público e já teve um aperto de salários nos últimos tantos anos, eu realmente consigo lembrar quantos, estou com raiva e aterrorizado com o que acontecerá agora. O comportamento ignorante de heads-up-their-asses de tantos dos meus colegas de língua inglesa é assustador e posso acreditar que Trump poderia facilmente ser eleito presidente agora. Eu pensei que deveria ser feliz no dia em que Cameron parou de ser PM, mas I8217m realmente, realmente não Alex Le Heux, há uma série de barreiras reais para uma vitória de Trump. Eles odiaram dentro do Partido Republicano, cujos pooh-bahs estão se afastando dele, não elegemos diretamente o Presidente, o Colégio Eleitoral faz. HRC e Democratas em geral têm uma enorme vantagem na CE, com algo como 240 dos 270 votos da faculdade eleitoral necessários para ganhar quase garantido para ser Democrata. Por favor, não entre em pânico sobre suas contas de aposentadoria, a menos que você esteja pronto para aposentar-se, mas outra população que está hiperventilando sobre essas contas, e essas pessoas que já se aposentaram e dependem delas para as despesas do dia-a-dia. Eu me aposentei (com tempo brilhante) no final de 2007 e vi quase um terço das minhas economias evaporar em dois meses. Se acontecer novamente por causa da Brexit, I8217m vai estar procurando as cozinhas locais. E estou absolutamente aterrorizado de que, se as pessoas no Reino Unido forem tolas o suficiente para acreditar em Farage e Johnson, as pessoas nos EUA são burras o suficiente para eleger Trump (cuja reação é um exemplo perfeito do narcisismo do homem). Se você for um cidadão dos EUA com idade de votação e NÃO vote nas próximas eleições, não tenho nada a dizer para você. Sempre. Geoff Hart Este foi quase precisamente o meu raciocínio para votar no 8220Leave8221. Estou incrivelmente irritado por pessoas que descartam as preocupações legítimas sobre a natureza disfuncional e, de fato, perigosa da União Européia, como é hoje. A única diferença é que, enquanto minhas preferências filosóficas coincidem com as suas, na prática percebo que a UE é tão disfuncional que simplesmente não pode ser reformada por dentro. Eu aprecio que a) a minha é uma escolha inteiramente subjetiva entre contrafactuais e b) que existem muitos riscos associados à decisão. De acordo com o acima exposto, seria bom se o comentário e o próprio JS fossem evitar que cada um de nós eleitores do Reino Unido fosse o fenótipo xenophobe8221 histérico crescente. Eu, por um lado, pensei e agonizei sobre minha decisão e não estou fazendo isso de forma leve ou emocional. Como eleitor, estou preparado para assumir a responsabilidade por isso, seja qual for a forma em que vier. Finalmente, deixe-se acalmar sobre a suposta calamidade nos mercados financeiros. Nossa ilha não está afundando porque a libra caiu 10 anos atualizados em termos ponderados pelo comércio ou o FTSE perdeu 2,5. Josh Jasper diz: I8217 não tenho certeza se alguém já apontou ainda, mas a idéia de que o Reino Unido pode voltar para a UE sem problemas That8217s falso. A UE tem uma inventiva maciça para fazer sair muito punitiva, de modo a evitar que outras nações formem a mesma rota. A idéia de que o Reino Unido pode negociar um acordo 8220better8221 com a Europa e as nações européias. Também é falso exatamente pelas mesmas razões. Mas essa foi a mentira de que os britânicos foram vendidos pelo campo Leave camp 8211 que a renegociação seria fácil e a Europa ficaria feliz em dar-lhes todo tipo de concessões melhores. Que they8217d tinha 350 milhões de libras adicionais para serviços de saúde. Que as consequências do banco não prejudicariam. Todas essas coisas eram mentiras, mas as pessoas acreditavam ou literalmente não se preocupavam com a dor econômica real. O que eles queriam era de menos imigrantes, e a dor econômica seria condenada, porque presumivelmente uma vez que a Grã-Bretanha era branca de novo, eles deveriam ser titãs econômicos. Porque de alguma forma a brancura gera magicamente dinheiro e sucesso. Wiredog A participação nos EUA não é tão terrível quanto aquilo. 58 na última eleição presidencial. Mas dê uma olhada na maravilha de Minnesota com 76 da votação votante votante votante (4 outros estados também quebram 70). Algumas amostragens das leis de votação de Minnesota8217: inscrição no mesmo dia, nenhuma identificação de eleitor, cadastro de internet, falta de desculpa na votação de ausência, tempo de pagamento para votar. Não acredite em mim sobre esse último. Ache isso. Floed by Scalzis awesomeness diz: Então, I8217ve literalmente me gritava rouco em pânico pela última hora. Lá vai o último vestígio de um império que uma vez controlou perto, o que, 23 do mundo, bom trabalho, Boris. Bom trabalho. Então, o Reino Unido precisa dispor de uma recuação8221 re-fazendo o referendo como agora, porque isso é ruim. Isso é realmente, muito ruim. Isso é muito pior do que a Escócia deixando o Reino Unido, porque pelo menos com a Escócia era mais uma identidade étnica e seria muito parecido com o divórcio da Checoslováquia. Uma confusão econômica, com certeza, especialmente para a Escócia, mas não tão ruim. Este referendo, meu deus, eu posso processá-lo completamente. Bem. Eu cruzei meus dedos e rezei para não conseguir Trump. Porque o assustador é que isso o favorece, apesar de sua incompetência econômica e seu acidente de trem de uma campanha. Não é suficiente para votar. Lembre-se de que o Supremo Tribunal tornou mais difícil para muitas pessoas votar destruindo a VRA. Ajude a registrar os eleitores. Pegue as pessoas nas eleições no dia da eleição. Guardião da ponte. What8230 é o seu voto sobre Brexit Low-information Brit. Deixar ele é jogado ao longo da borda, diga: 8220Em eleitor e senador de Bush que optaram por não contestar os resultados da Floridas é responsável por ser eleito eleger, e não pelos eleitores de Nader.8221 Você talvez quisesse dizer 8220 e 8221, onde você está disposto a votar 8220not8221? Para dar um eleitor de Nader na Flórida, metade da responsabilidade de um eleitor de Bush lá, já que o voto de Nader foi efetivamente meio voto de Bush. Mas eles não conseguem sair do gancho. A menos que seu objetivo seja encontrar alguém culpado pelos problemas que se seguem, o que, falando em geral, é um monte de problemas com as recentes estações eleitorais, há muita responsabilidade em dar uma volta. Podemos também começar a trabalhar nas nossas partes. Eu darei a bandeira do meu otimista8217 um breve flutter: os Leavers disseram a seus apoiantes liderados pela emoção que não haveria conseqüências sérias. Agora, a libra está caindo, os investidores estarão recuando, as empresas existentes que têm que pagar contas em euros acabaram de ser atingidas com dificuldade, os preços das moradias caíram e as taxas de hipoteca subirão, a Scotland8217 está pronta para se separar e os europeus não estão implorando Para um novo acordo 8212 eles estão dizendo: 8220Bugger off8221 Então, um mês depois, as pesquisas e as chamadas para deputados podem mostrar uma mudança de opinião entre muitos. Deixar eleitores. O referendo não é vinculativo para o governo. Se o governo mudar por causa de um voto de não confiança na Câmara, tudo pode acontecer. Mas, basicamente, estamos na situação dos personagens do romance de John Dos Passos8217, em 1919, sobre uma idade semelhante de interrupção iminente: 8220 Todas as apostas estão desligadas.8221 jovem candidato You8217re ouvindo europeus particulares, that8217s why8230 Claro, os gostos de Jean-Claude Juncker E Martin Schulz adoraria esmagar todos esses murmúrios inconvenientes de descontentamento de forma rápida e decisiva ao serem tão duras quanto possível com o Reino Unido. Eles podem até chegar a caminho. No entanto, como já disse, a UE é um lugar complicado e existem outras vozes (IMHO, mais sábias) que defendem uma abordagem diferente, uma vez que o Reino Unido não está sozinho. A afirmação de que o Reino Unido definitivamente não terá nenhum acordo é, portanto, falsa. Quanto ao racismo, deixe-me entender isso. Você está sugerindo que a ação de votação 8220Leave8221 me torne automaticamente um xenófobo e um racista que eu não poderia ter quaisquer razões para votar desse jeito além do preconceito ou do ódio Eu também ouvi as campanhas e, eu asseguro, eu ouvi sobre Muito mais do que 8220Scary Immigrants8221. Mas eu acho que você não acredita em mim, porque você viu o que me levou ao posto de votação, certo. Deixe-me adivinhar, deve ter sido racismo e xenofobia. Finalmente, desde que trabalho em finanças, vejo o FTSE e o GBP em tempo real sem Tendo que recorrer ao Google. Não estou inteiramente certo de qual calamidade você pensa que eu deveria me entusiasmar por lá. Mas talvez seja assim, eu acho que eu sou um troll8221 de postagem 8220. Com essa nota, posso sugerir que na próxima vez que você quiser falar comigo, você acalmará um pouco. Um pouco de civilidade não iria mal, embora eu presumo que você pensasse que isso era desperdiçado em um racista como eu. Martinghoul 8220 Você está sugerindo que a ação de votação Deixe automaticamente me faz um xenófobo e um racista. Que eu não poderia ter quaisquer razões para votar desse jeito além do preconceito e / ou o ódio8221 Youngpretender8217s comentar em resposta a você doesn8217t parece ter contido algo assim, Pelo que posso ver. Mas eu queria tocar porque, em um de seus comentários anteriores, você afirmou que a posição de deixar entre os eleitores em geral era mais sobre a soberania do que a xenofobia. Isso parece muito parecido com o 8220history8221 ainda ensinado em algumas salas de aula nos EUA hoje (como o jovem aspirante apontou) que se opunham à Lei de Direitos Civis e, de fato, mesmo a Guerra Civil sobre a escravidão em si, eram realmente apenas 8220states8217 rights.8221 The A resposta apropriada a esses argumentos é 8220 Sim, os direitos dos estados 8217 de promulgar leis de votação racista continuam a ter escravos próprios, 8221 que são posições claramente racistas. 8220States8217 rights8221 é um eufemismo para muitas das pessoas que o usam. E, da mesma forma, quando você diz que a maioria dos eleitores citaram a soberania do 8220UK8221 como motivo de votação, minha resposta é 8230. Como é que não é um eufemismo para o direito do soberano de manter os imigrantes não brancos para fora8217, especificamente à luz da retórica xenófoba usada pelas pessoas que empurram A Campanha de licença8221 They8217re não são mutuamente exclusivas. Nada disso é chamar qualquer eleitor individual individual, racista, xenófobo ou qualquer outra coisa. É necessário dizer que a questão do problema para grandes partes dos eleitores não é o controle de fronteiras e a imigração, a soberania de todos os Estados Unidos equivale a dizer que a questão não é a coisa X, o princípio de alta mente Y, que é essencialmente um eufemismo para a coisa X neste contexto específico. 8221 Brexit é um excelente exemplo dos perigos da democracia direta. Os referendos, independentemente de quão estruturado ou seja o que for alto, existem principalmente para que o público tenha um "snit". As eleições são boas para escolher representantes, seja seus congressistas ou MP8217s. Para reparar a maquinaria do governo 8211 não tanto. Spencerdub Eu sinto que algumas variações em qualquer das músicas do rei George III8217s podem ser apropriadas. Mas tudo o que eu tenho ouvido na minha cabeça é 8220Este filho está fora Este imigrante não é alguém que escolhemos8230.8221 drashizu: Embora eu deplore Brexit e os efeitos prováveis, e eu não concordo com tudo o que Martinghoul disse aqui, eu não penso que seja eu mesmo - evidente de que existe uma correspondência um-para-um entre a questão da soberania em Brexit e a questão dos direitos dos estados8217 na Confederação. Penso que a questão da soberania neste caso é, pelo menos, tão susceptível de se assemelhar aos cidadãos8217, concentrar-se na soberania como motivo para não se juntar à Liga das Nações após a Primeira Guerra Mundial. A soberania nacional é uma questão emocional para muitas pessoas e, embora possa ter xenophobia as a component, racism and xenophobia are not necessarily its heart, and it is not ipso facto a euphemism for xenophobia and racism, IMO. I8217m from the UK and I think this is a very sad day for those people who really wanted to stay 8211 48:52 is not really an overwhelming landslide after all 8211 particularly when it will have such a massive impact not just on the UK but plenty of others besides (as you8217ve demonstrated in your article above). The one thing that immediately sprung to mind was the whole saga with Trump 8211 definitely people need to learn a lesson from what8217s taking place here. The campaigning for both sides was dreadful and to now have people saying they voted to 8216leave8217 because they didn8217t think it would happen really does make a mockery of the whole thing. Campaign against complacency, please Strangely enough Trump was visiting Scotland today and congratulated us all on getting our country back Really. Words just fail me. Trump, Farage and Johnson 8211 truth is certainly stranger than fiction. The future is bright, or maybe not so much for the foreseeable future. Lynn :D That8217s fair, and I certainly don8217t know enough about the attitudes of the UK electorate to know what proportion that is. Martinghoul was interpreting youngpretender8217s observation about how 8220sovereignty8221 sounds like 8220states8217 rights8221 to mean something wildly different from what I thought it meant 8211 8220So what, I8217M racist now8221 vs. as I saw it, 8220You can8217t cite exit polls saying voters saw themselves as voting for sovereignty as evidence that xenophobia was not in play for a large number of them8221 8211 and I really didn8217t want that to go unremarked-on. My facebook is overwhelmingly full of smart young people working out how to get out of the UK, and soon, whether that8217s taking a research job in Germany now and hoping to get grandfathered in or applying for Irish citizenship 8211 and that8217s not counting the many EU students I know who were intending to remain in the UK after completing their degree, or the scientists choosing to work here who don8217t know what their future is going to be or what8217s going to happen to their funding. I think Britain is going to be facing a serious pouring out of intellectuals, and for a small country with no real manufacturing base anymore, that8217s going to be one more disaster. Martinghoul I8217ve been saying exactly what you8217ve so eloquently written the whole day today 8211 8220the racists won8221 line got old real fast. I don8217t doubt that many (all) right-wing racist nutters voted leave. That doesn8217t mean that ALL Brexiters are racists. The sky is blue. Everything blue is not the sky. The EU is broken. Is it fixable Did we try to Well Dave C. did his damndest in the spring to sort out the UK8217s biggest concerns and got a few bits and pieces bent in our favour here and there. A very few. With a referendum looming. So, no, I8217m not sure it iswas fixable (from the inside, certainly.) Did I vote leave I did not but not before having many months of painstaking research. They didn8217t make the facts and figures easy to find, did they And FWIW, JS. No, Scotland does not want another independence referendum. SOME of Scotland does, sure. They8217ve wanted another for the past 18 months. But 45 of a country is not a whole country. Some of us think Better Together isn8217t just a slogan. Greg: 8220And here you are, making sure the feelings of blantant bigots dont get hurt.8221 Haters hating haters. And round in circles we go. Mark turner says: Immediately labeling people who voted out as bigotsracistsxenophobes is bigoted itself I have no doubt there were people like that who voted out however I suggest you take a look at the actual position and thoughts of hard left politicians who think the EU are antidemocratic. Cf Jeremy Corbyn not voting to join the EEC in the 70s. Political illiteracy in the UK I8217m afraid is alive and well. Also consider noone voted to join the EU Britain only joined the EEC in the 70s. A single market not political union. Would the US, Canada and Mexico suddenly join a political union because you have NAFTA The problem for the EU was that too many politicians tried to widen and deepen EU integration too quickly. The former Warsaw Pact nations were not ready for joining the EU and have been used as convenient mulch cows for their resources and to keep some downward pressure in wage inflation. To go with this when the single currency came into being why were countries that patently did not meet the economic criteria allowed to join Could it be that certain north European nations with a rather chequered twentieth century saw a chance to lend them money so they could buy goods they couldn8217t afford Credit crunch anyone I personally voted remain as I see our future in Europe but tbh EU integration should be a very long-term gradual process, not what it had been. We should be looking at an EU federal state by about 2100. I have also been wondering about all those people screaming and shouting and gnashing their teeth and what they actually did. Did they canvass, put up posters, doorstep people, hold debates Or did they do nothing and then whine If it mattered that much and you were that invested, then what did you do I only mention this that you should always remember that democracy is not passive. You must be active if you truly believe something is worth fighting for. I8217m in the US and don8217t know how this might work, but is it outside the realm of possibility that, given the Leave vote won: 1. The EU and the UK negotiate some of those elements that prompted the leave vote in the first place 2. Changes are then made (or promised) after which Parliament could call a second referendum vote 8220See Things have changed8221 Which would then: 3. Allow those 8220low information8221 Leave voters vote again with a bit more information (like the tanking of the markets and the rise in unemployment) Well, the information deficit seems to have been a major player in our debacle for example, I have been endeavouring to explain that, whilst the Central banks performed pretty well in preventing our death spiral spreading to the rest of the global financial markets, it has done so at the cost of a great deal of money, and a great deal of goodwill. It would have helped had the person I was responding to known what the Central banks are, just as it would have helped if they had known what gilts are in understanding why Standard and Poor8217s down rating from Triple A meant that many investment trusts had to sell those gilts to stick the money someplace else where the citizens are less likely to commit economic suicide. There was certainly an element of racism in the Leave vote, but the remarkable degree of ignorance really didn8217t help. For example, it does not appear to have occurred to those urging the departure of bankers to other shores that the people demolishing property in the City of London, so they can erect bigger buildings in that space, have jobs which they will lose because no sane person would put their capital into a country committing economic suicide. This also applies to residential property builders, hence the plunge in their share prices I8217m getting tired of typing 8216economic suicide8217, but it still applies. So, from this side of the pond, I would urge you to follow Scalzi8217s advice I am economically privileged, and thus protected from much of the shit heading towards my fellow citizens, but it is very obvious that you cannot rely on people behaving rationally. Believing that you needn8217t worry about Trump could, and probably would, be catastrophic. Dale Allen says: Yeah, Trumps witless remarks in Scotland shows his brilliant regional knowledge of current events and politics, he just makes shit up as he goes. Nuking Trump from orbit not good enough. Buried at the crossroads, holly stake through heart. Preferably with HRC in the next hole. Then may the Republic find healing. Niall Shapero says: I wish that Santayana wasn8217t always laughing from the grave. I have a friend who got a university job in England this year. I8217m debating whether or not to e-mail her to ask8230or if that8217ll just make her feel worse. I probably just won8217t ask. When you snuggle up with UKIP, people are going to assume you agree with them and are, in fact, a bigot and a racist, as well as being spectacularly ill-informed and, in brief, a fascist-fantasy-prone personality. Don8217t like it Tough, because your idiocy on the biggest issue of the day loses you any and all credibility elsewhere. Apparently all may not yet be lost. Burried amonst all the doom and gloom are a number of authoriatative sources, The Guardian, Financial Times, etc. pointing out that the referendum is theoretically non-binding. Mr. Cameron must call for a vote in Parliament to officialy invoke something called Article 50 of the EU authorizing treaty. Apparently, in theory at least, either he or Parliament could decline to take that step. 8230No afirmative Article 50 vote, no Brexit. Of course this will create a new shitstorm As a Brit who is pissed that roughly 25 of the population didn8217t turn up to vote and who could have easily shifted the 2 win to a 6 loss for brexit i say to the us populist fucken vote, show that you are smarter that8217s Brits. Seriously vote. It8217s only when things like this happen that you realize how much influence the UK still has over the lives of people all over the world. Brit in Gibraltar As far as I can tell they have 3 options: move form sunny Spain to soggy England (leaving friends and family), move to economically not-so-great Spain, stay, and have to endure a border crossing every time you go to the doctor, go shopping or go to see the in-laws. And all the people outside the UK who hold British passports but couldn8217t vote now those passports aren8217t nearly the golden ticket they used to be. The only silver lining I can see is if it somehow results in a peaceful unification of Ireland. (And I8217m putting that somewhere between a million to one and nope.) This window has been open for a bit apologies if I repeat anything that has been said. All of the umbrage and pearl-clutching you may muster does not change the fact that the thrust of Leave8217s media was as many pictures of foreigners, as many times as possible, with insufficiently brown ones photoshopped or cropped to keep the theme from being cluttered. That is the bed that Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson made. Similarly, all the pearl-clutching and umbrage you may muster doesn8217t change that you choose to lie in that bed, nor does it give anyone else an obligation to help you pretend you didn8217t decide that voting with a large group of people who are misty-eyed for their teenage stint of being colonists in Rhodesia or Kenya or Ghana or somewhere was a good idea. Leave was a vote for the nostalgia and rose-tinted glasses of empire thus the lack of comprehension everywhere else, especially amongst those of us dealing with our own mop-topped would-be Mussolini. At a certain point, the assumption about Leave is that they were either a) racist xenophobes, b) too dumb to realize they were cozied up with racist xenophobes, or c) entirely comfortable with a movement whose voting mass was provided by a) and b). Many commenters here apparently believe most people are stupid andor evil and democracy is useless unless we tick the approved box when voting. Youngpretender, you haven8217t mentioned how all the Leave voters are like Hitler yet. By all means, don8217t stop now. It8217s strange and sad that the nation which I gree up in 8211 The United Kindom 8211 won8217t exist for much longer. Scotland8217s already halfway out the door and Ireland8217s not far behind. I am baffled at the outcome of the Brexit poll. Yes, the EU is a bureaucratic monster and Brussels needs a reform to remove all that centristic non-democratic bullshit de Gaulle had installed to form it after the french system that worked sooo good for France. But how could we tread on without Britain. We burned bridges to keep Greece and everybody hates Germany for it. France is staggering along. Do the people forget how the European idea kept the old world from going after each others throat again. It8217s not only the West vs. East idea that kept the peace. And using fearmongering about Germany8230 yes, we are a great part of this. Get used to it. That arsehat of a Charlie-Chaplin-imitator is dead for ages and we have our fair share of idiots like they have in France and Britain. Talking about a Fourth Reich is the most stupid excuse to throw away what good the EU has to offer, because the EU is not to fail because the EU is a bad idea. Yes, I8217m looking at you 8211 lying UKIP dimwits. It will fail if people continue to think small and wail about every little hardship. I8217m an EU-unionist and thought that there must be something bigger than the single old states 8211 while keeping your identity and being part of something bigger and better than that. But we are back to that selfish 8220what can other people do for me8221 instead of 8220what can I do for others8221. RIP EU, you had a good run. See you when we have a pointless war with Russia, so the small people have to suffer for the stupidity of the 8220elite8221 AGAIN. Fuck, I hate people. I did not vote for Nader, not a supporter. Can we please put the 8220it was Nader8217s fault8221 rant to permanent rest because it8217s as accurate as saying 8220the Supreme Court handed the election to Bush.8221 In other words, not really all that much. The weird but true fact is that every single left-ish candidate got more votes than the margin in Florida. The lowest vote-getter, the effin8217 Socialist Worker candidate, can be blamed for throwing the election to Bush. I mean, really8211 when was the last time we could blame the heir to the Wobblies for costing the Dems an election Surreal. Really, it8217s the fault of any of a whole bunch of third parties. One might make the argument that third parties are a really bad idea in national elections, when there8217s no chance of anyone but the Big Two winning. It might not even be a bad argument. Not really the one we8217re engaging. Yeah, Nader gets his share of blame8230 and so do four or five other third parties. Perpetually singling him out as if HE is the problem is a kind of scapegoating that manages to erroneously distract from the real problem. I entirely agree that people who vote third-party should understand the consequences of their vote. But incessantly focusing on one specific individual deflects from the point you8217re making. drashizu I am pretty sure I am not hallucinating. The statement made by youngpretender which I interpreted as directly applicable to me was the following: 8220Their racism was shown by their actions, not their precious its actually about ethics in.. justifications.8221 It would appear to imply that, because of my actions, I must be racist, regardless of the reasons I8217ve given. As to your other point, I think there was someone who has beaten me to the punch. I have offered you a counterexample. Specifically, myself. Suppose you believe what I have told you about my reasoning (otherwise, we have nothing to discuss). This implies that there exist people who have voted 8220Leave8221 for reasons completely different to racism and xenophobia. There is no doubt in my mind that there also exist people who have voted 8220Leave8221 precisely because they are racist and xenophobic and were swayed by those aspects of the 8220Leave8221 campaign. Now given the existence of both types of voters, on what basis do you conclude that 8220most8221 are of the latter sort and are using 8220sovereignty8221 euphemistically, as you describe Please note that the statement you are making is an affirmative one, so the burden of proof is on you. Finally, please also note that it8217s disrespectful and arrogant to automatically assume that 8220most8221 people who happen to disagree with you are being hypocritical and have ulterior, morally questionable motives for their choices. Speaking of morality, I refuse to accept the comparison that you and youngpretender are offering. The parallels don8217t really hold, IMHO. When an excuse is given to justify practices as unequivocally abhorrent and unacceptable as slavery or segregation, I would happily join you in condemning such arguments, no matter what they might be. This is emphatically and obviously not the case here. Specifically, regarding your somewhat misguided idea about the 8216sovereign right to keep nonwhite immigrants out. The UK has always had this right, because the 8220nonwhite immigrants8221 don8217t come from the EU, but rather from the Commonwealth countries, such as India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. This is still the case now, even though the 8220white immigrants8221 from the EU have been catching up. Clearly, Brexit affects the latter, but not the former. 8220Many commenters here apparently believe most people are stupid andor evil82308221 The record of the human race in matters of genocide, religious wars, assorted forms of bigotry and fact-poor comments complaining about commenters on here etc would seem to suggest that your imagined commenters have a point. 8220This implies that there exist people who have voted Leave for reasons completely different to racism and xenophobia.8221 When you vote for a campaign that traffics primarily in racism and xenophobia, you don8217t get the right to pat yourself on the back for your imagined superior intellect and moral virtue. Lie down with Farage, wake up with racist, xenophobic fleas. A note about the accusations of racism and other unpleasantness that are flying about: Let8217s remember that people vote for myriad and complex reasons. The 8220leave8221 voter who decides they can8217t tolerate EU bureaucracy and the racist who votes 8220leave8221 because they want to get rid of the immigrants may have made the same decision, but the reasons are night and day different. It8217s unfair and offensive to lump them both under the same category of dangerous idjits. Think Venn diagrams: some leavers voted their conscience, some voted their fear or hatred, and some voted both simultaneously. Others are the disjunct set, and voted for none of the above reasons. Let8217s not falsely accuse. Hard to resist poking a hole in Trump given that it8217s been brought up so often in this thread. So8230 it8217s worth noting something that8217s rarely mentioned: If Trump does win the presidency, he8217ll quickly discover it8217s not like running a company where he can fire anyone who disagrees with him and do whatever the hell he wants, irrespective of opposition. As Obama has discovered during the last 8 years, even a popular president can8217t accomplish much when enough senators and congresscritters oppose him. So I see one of three things happening should Trump win: (1) His will frustrated, he quits in a huff and leaves the office with no notice. Embarrassing and awkward, and economically disruptive, but the government is robust against such beheadings things will resume normalcy in a few weeks. (2) He suffers a fatal rage-induced heart attack from frustration at having his will thwarted at every turn both by the Democrats and by his own party. (3) He stays in office, growing progressively weaker and nastier, with daily Youtube videos in the 8220let8217s watch DT being miserable8221 specialty channel. Great for the schadenfreude crowd. So there8217s some upside potential here, folks. GDRLH I think the UK might find it rough going negotiating trade agreements without the might of the EU behind them, I know my country went through a bit of a rough patch after being dropped like a hot potato by the UK when it decided to join the common market. P. S. to Nigel Farage 8220maybe we can start re-engaging with the commonwealth and the real friends we8217ve got out there8221 comes about 30 years too late (not that the commonwealth countries won8217t trade with the UK, just that they8217ve been making a whole bunch of other trade deals in the mean time which are unlikely to give favourable status to the UK). Once again, I failed to win a fortune by gambling on the financial market. In this case, taking out a second mortgage and buying pounds first thing today. It8217s probably too late now. Also, I8217m an amateur and the sharks would eat me. PS: NOT whining and NOT a 2000 Nader voter and DON8217T think Nader was responsible for Bush. gorefailstotakehomestate supremecourtfailstosupportcountingballots smallsatisfactionthatallreligiousrightfriendsfeelbetrayedbybushadministration 8220Its unfair and offensive to lump them both under the same category of dangerous idjits.8221 Not when they vote for the same racist and xenophobic campaign run by dangerous idjits, it isn8217t. It8217s a matter of facing the facts, rather than piously pretending that voting for Nigel Farage is not voting for. why, yes. Nigel Farage. If you vote for a campaign based on racism and xenophobia, you deserve to be treated as someone who votes for racism and xenophobia 8211 and if you don8217t like it, you have the luxurious opportunity to8230 gasp8230 not vote for racism and xenophobia. This is really not a difficult concept to grasp. People doth assume too much, methinks8230 At any rate, you8217re free to believe whatever your heart desires about me, including, but not limited to: me agreeing with UKIP me being an ill-informed bigot and a racist, as well as me being, what was it exactly, a fascist-fantasy-prone personality and an idiot. Whether or not I dislike it is neither here nor there (I find it amusing, in fact). However, know this: you are providing ample reason for me to feel that I did the right thing by voting the way I did. I thought, agonized over and carefully considered my decision and, even though I might be proven wrong, I know exactly what my arguments are and the risks around them. The best you can offer is uninspired, unsubstantiated and emotional invective. I8217d much rather be wrong my way than be silly your way any day. Some people are running petitions for a second referendum, while others are suggesting politicians could use technicalities to ignore the electorate. I think both would do more harm than good. I am passionately pro-EU, but also passionately anti-cheating. That said, I wrote a long post about what we (British and European citizens) can do to stop things from getting out of hand: bastianbalthasarbooks. co. uk201606if-electorate-hands-you-lemons. html Anyone who agrees with my points, please feel free to share it far and wide. As a German you must forgive my Schadenfreude, we really do need an example for the Greeks to understand when you do something stupid. Don8217t worry, Britain will survive, yes a bit less relevant but still standing. The British will just have to learn how to be second fiddle. That said, don8217t worry about November, Drumpf is the best gift to America in the last 100 years, not only will he insure Hillary8217s Presidency, he will bring about a Democratic Congress, he will insure that immigration is never challenged again. Stop worrying your silly people, as Pres O said, history is on our side I8217d say the same to you as I said just now to Nickzi. If what you8217ve offered in your last post is an accurate summary of how you think about and understand the Brexit issue, I feel a little better about having voted the way I did. Thanks to you, I am starting to imagine that maybe the result of the referendum was actually a victory of reason over hysteria and emotion, after all. Billy Quiets says: It8217s been a pleasure reading your comments on this subject. I8217ve found that one can tell pretty quickly the weakness of someone else8217s argument based solely on their propensity for name calling and insistence on branding their opponent as xxxxphobic. I guess you can8217t blame them for these schoolyard tactics since they8217ve been so successful with it, no matter how intellectually lazy it might be. It8217s certainly not all about racism. Many people in Cornwall believe that EU regulations destroyed their fishing and farming sectors and that the EU money that came in was mostly spent incredibly stupidly, for example. There were actual statesmanlike like things Cameron could have done to make things better, were he capable. First 8211 USA must be very careful because right now we are on track for Trump to win the election outright. How The Democrats are more divided than you realize 8211 and the Bernie or Bust movement is more than 50 of the Bernie supporters. If you do the math, Hillary will jot get the votes she needs. All of the youngish Bernie supporters that I met have Republican parents who hate Hillary8230 These 20 somethings grew into Dems Independents who support Bernie but they will not support Hillary because she was villified by their parents when these kids were growing up. They cannot move past that shit8230 Donald is going to get the all of the votes from all of the folks who are saying, 8220Screw the government8221 8211 and there are more of those folks than any other category of voter8230 America is playing with fire. Just like the referendum should never have been brought to a vote in Britain, Trump should never have been allowed to be a nominee8230 I guarantee this will come back to haunt our country. As a Brit who voted for (and delivered leaflets for) the Leave campaign, I8217m thrilled and delighted that we have the opportunity to take back control of our destiny. There is a short-term negative froth in the UK and the EU. That8217s because markets think they can make money by trading. It8217s nothing fundamentally to worry about as long as the Bank of England provides liquidity (which fortunately we can do because unlike Ireland and Greece, we weren8217t seduced into the single European currency). This vote was not, for me, a rejection of globalisation 8211 either in terms of trade or in terms of free movement of people. I voted Leave because I wanted the opportunity to trade on fair terms with the whole world, not just a declining part of the near-continent. This result gives us the opportunity to reintroduce proper trading relationships with countries which are succeeding, such as the USA, China, India, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, etc. Similarly, I wasn8217t being racist about immigration 8211 quite the opposite, it was a rejection of the bigoted assumption that we should bias our immigration to citizens of those nearby countries who happen to be predominantly white and Christian enough to have been allowed into the little EU club. I believe that after the dust has settled, Britain will be better able to choose qualified immigrants, irrespective of their country of origin, and also have greater capacity to support those in highest need, because resources won8217t be lost on those who contribute less, need less but have the right to be supported by the British taxpayer. In terms of our next discussions with our European partners on trade, I expect to get better terms than the WTO minimum 8211 because Volkswagen can8217t afford otherwise 8211 but I am happy that the UK will continue to trade with the USA on the same terms that the EU has managed for the last 20 years. Again, after the dust has settled I expect the terms of trade to be better for all sides, but for now the impact of tarriffs would be less than the exchange rate fluctuations, and George Soros clearly explained back in 1992 why the UK is unsuited to being part of the EU policy on exchange rates. My biggest concern relates to our relatives in Scotland. Their politicians are going to talk at length about exporting 42 of trade exports to the EU and the impact of changes in the terms of that trade, without discussing how many multiples of that value is traded with England, Wales and Northern Ireland which would be lost of Scotland chose to leave the United Kingdom and apply to be part of the European Union. Finally, I commiserate with Gibraltar, which is likely to be bullied by a Spain which is wholly hypocritical over it8217s possession of Ceuta, Pen de Vlez de la Gomera, etc While I am disagree with him most of the time, I would urge everyone to read Ambrose Evans-Pritchard8217s piece on Brexit. His framing of the choices echoes my thoughts somewhat, even though I may not subscribe to all the specific points he makes. The pound went down. It will go back up again. The stock market fell. It will go back up again. Give everyone a few days and they8217ll change their diapers and the world will go on. While I8217m perfectly willing to say that someone could very well have made a decision to leave based on a carefully researched, well reasoned dislike or distrust of EU economic policies and structure, at the same time it has to be admitted that those were not the arguments that were made to the majority of voters. The face of Brexit, whether one likes it or not, is xenophobic and based on economic lies and while one may not share that xenophobia or believe those lies, you8217re still going to be associated with the public face of the Leave campaign. Your heart may be pure, but your vote empowered Farage and Johnson and their crew. The thing that no one seems to have commented upon8211although I may have missed it8211is the open glee expressed by Russia over this result. They have a vested interest in a weakened European community they want to rebuilt the Soviet empire, rebranded perhaps but for all practical purposes the same. They8217ve already taken those steps with the Ukraine. What scares me the most8211as much as Trump being elected8211is Europe dissolving back into a squabbling mess of individual national interests and selective alliances. That8217s a road that leads yet again to war, and one that this time nobody may survive. The Brexit is a wake up call to those who feel complacent about the possibility of a Trump Presidency. But, on the other hand, the votes can8217t be directly compared. Brexit referendum was on a single issue 8220I vote to remainI vote to leave8221 not on a person They didn8217t actually ask their citizens to check a box that said 8220I want Nigel Farage to be in charge of my country.8221 Given the amount of righteous indignation at the insinuation or declaraion that Leave voters are bigots and racists, presumably if the election were about a person, like Nigel Farage, some Leave voters would not have supported him. Americans don8217t get to hedge like that. We can8217t say 8220Oh, well, just because we voted along with the racists on the issue, doesn8217t mean we are actually supporting the King of the Idiots.8221 Our elections demand we chose the person. (Or throw away our vote in a variety of ways). We can8217t just say 8220Oh, I don8217t support the racist, I just like the idea of a giant wall.8221 there no 8220I vote to build Mexian Wall8221 box. We have to tick a box next to the name of the racist. I think we are fully capable of that level of stupidity, but it8217s a different choice than the UK was being asked to make. And FWIW I don8217t know where someone got the idea that 20 somethings spending their whole life listening to their parents wail against the Clintons are 8220incapable8221 of moving beyond that and won8217t vote for Hillary. Seriously Every Democrat I met in college came from rabid Republican parents. If anything, having grown up listening to their parents radio stations featuring Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity could make people more likely to vote for Clinton, because it takes the teeth out of most of the Bernie Bros talking points. They just loose their impact factor when someone has been screaming this at you since Tamagatchies were still a thing. I mean, I wouldn8217t vote for Rush Limbaugh, he8217s full of crap, so why should I listen to someone who is reading off his old scripts Mark Wyman says: If you just can8217t bring yourself to vote for the lesser of two evils, you darn well should be able to vote against the greater. Hold your nose if you have to. Make a contribution to the ACLU afterwards to cleanse your soul. Whatever it takes. Cthulhu (SJW TINGED) says: On reading the comments, I have only one thing to say: Oh sweet Summer children, you8217ve no idea about the future you8217ve created through your own desires. This stuff is just the foreplay. It wasn8217t the youth who did this, it was you. Here8217s a hint: the USA consumes 20-25 of all global resources for 5 of the population. That8217s not exactly fair, especially given that it would take x3-4 Earths to even have 50 of the global population enjoy the standard of life that modern Americans enjoy. 8220 Hey This has nothing to do with the topic 8220. It8217s all about seeing if you can rise above the Ego, the selfishness and the hate. Let8217s call the UK the dibble-dabble zone. You peeps are going to see Flowers Bloom in October. IT8217S NOT ME. IT8217S NEVER ME. I ARRIVE WHEN THE CLAMOR FOR SELF-DESTRUCTION IS SO GREAT AND THE SELF-DENIAL SO LARGE THAT I AM MADE. OH, AND BY THE WAY: Give everyone a few days and theyll change their diapers and the world will go on. NO, LITTLE ONE, YOU8217VE MISSED THE POINT. 4,000,000 PEOPLE DIE AS AN ABSOLUTE MINIMUM IF YOU CAN8217T CHANGE YOUR SILLY LITTLE MINDS. THING IS: ONE OF YOU WITH WINGS STATED THAT IF THIS HAPPENED NO HUMAN SHOULD SURVIVE THE GUILT AND SHAME AND FAILURE OF HUMANITY AND BET ALL OF YOUR SOULS UPON IT. SAD THING IS: SHE WOULD HAVE WON, IF YOU HADN8217T BEEN TOTAL FUCKING MUPPETS. Cthulhu (SJW TINGED) says: Correction: It meant 4,000,000,000 billion. The rest is accurate though. It8217s like the simplest task ever not to fail, and yet, here we are: watching humanity fuck themselves up because of what We8217re waiting for an adequate answer. Peter 8221 This result gives us the opportunity to reintroduce proper trading relationships with countries which are succeeding, such as the USA, China, India, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, etc.8221 Yeah funny thing about that, all of those countries (especially the former commonwealth ones) have all been furiously negotiating trade deals for the last 30 years (some more successfully than others cough TPPA cough). The UK is coming late to the party and without the formidable might of the EU standing behind it, and with industry and agriculture used to standing behind EU subsidies and tariffs8230 I have no doubt that the UK will get trade agreements but they are likely to be on far worse terms than with the EU (and are likely to involve much more surrender in the way of UK sovereignty). I would expect at the very least that agriculture in the UK is about to suffer very very badly (probably industry and the sciences as well). Cthulhu (SJW TINGED) says: This result gives us the opportunity to reintroduce proper trading relationships with countries which are succeeding, such as the USA, China, India, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, etc. USA 8211 water loss via aquifer depletion, mass pollution and soil degradation China 8211 water loss via aquifer depletion, mass pollution and soil degradation India 8211 water loss via aquifer depletion, mass pollution and soil degradation Canada 8211 Agriculture is 1.7 of GDP Australia 8211 water loss via aquifer depletion, mass pollution and soil degradation plus that entire Climate Change thing moving things into that non-productive 44oC zone New Zealand 8211 woooooo success It8217s like you8217re not even trying anymore. Cthulhu (SJW TINGED) says: I can source and dump you peer researched papers on all of my claims, especially the environmental ones. Since, you know, it8217s reality and empirical science vrs dumb internet commentary. Those in the know are calling it 8220the end of the Green Revolution8221. If you8217re not just an Ayn Rand mouthpiece, that might concern you. Cthulu 8220New Zealand woooooo success8221 Nope also water loss via aquifer depletion, mass pollution and soil degradation. Having said that I believe Peter meant that these countries would make agreements buy British products which8230good luck with that. Look at just how much trouble the TPPA caused in terms of countries not being willing to give up sovereignty or tariffs on their favoured exports and then imagine trying to step into that morass as a newly un-EU8217d country which has been sitting behind EU tariffssubsidies. UK agriculture was already pretty tenuous, I expect this is going to drive it into the ground. Pedro: interesting that you don8217t think civility ought to cut both ways I guess that kind of hurts the narrative that Trump8217s voting base is entirely in the right and acting out of justifiably hurt feelings by people who they8217ve never done wrong. Firstly, given just how wide-ranging the debate on Brexit had been, I find it puzzling how you can readily conclude what particular arguments were presented to the majority of voters. For goodness sake, during the Paxman-moderated debate on the night before the vote, I watched a lady argue for 8220Leave8221, because the EU has done nothing to stop animal cruelty. You have chosen to focus on the face of Brexit based on xenophobia and economic lies. I didn8217t and I see no evidence to suggest that the other voters are any different. As to myself and others being associated with what you perceive to be the public face of the 8220Leave8221 campaign, let me just suggest this. Association is in the eye of the associator. Given that you understand that I might possibly have my reasons, why don8217t you make an effort and stop making sweeping assumptions Maybe it will be better for everyone this way Finally, yes, I am aware of the implications of my vote, as I have stated previously. Let me ask you this. Suppose, like me, you were of the opinion that the 8220Remain8221 vote would result in a path which is significantly more dangerous and destructive than anything Nigel Farage could reasonably come up with. Would you have voted in favor of what you believe to be a worse outcome, just because you find Nigel Farage8217s xenophobic views distasteful Please. Just stop. You make like one election in the same cohort with bigots and angry old people will fix everything. It will not. Several elections of that fashion might, if the fascists don8217t ram an Enabling Act down your throats first. Of course, even that presumes that those who now possess practically All The Things will just gracefully surrender them. Good luck with that. Ask any Russians or Germans handy how that worked out for them. Miles Archer: 8220In November, if there is any chance of Trump winning California, I will certainly check the box for Hillary. I think thats extremely unlikely and I will most likely vote for someone else.8221 Have you already forgotten that California elected Arnold Schwarzenegger governor There8217s a whole lot of voters in California who will vote for novelty, entertainment value, and lolz, And Arnold didn8217t have half the 8220entertainment value8221 that Trump has for nihilists who don8217t care about real-world effects. Pedro: 8220Interesting that you dont think civility ought to cut both ways I guess that kind of hurts the narrative that Trumps voting base is entirely in the right and acting out of justifiably hurt feelings by people who theyve never done wrong.8221 Really What makes you say that In some ways I pity you because you show so little understanding of the way capitalism works in general, and the way the global financial markets work in particular, You seem to know nothing about that, which is disheartedlng8230 Some of my best friends are atheist, so I won8217t bring up Jesus instead I8217ll ask: What would Honest Abe Lincoln do Lincoln was careful not to hate anybody, at least, not in public. In his neutrality, he was more like a bureaucrat. I8217m not so sure the bureaucrats and people of the EU would make negative trade agreements with Britain, since to do so would be to act upon emotion, which is not a capitalist value. Because values reflect action, I see a sliver lining, writing from Canada. A great prime minister here once pointed out that Canada is a confederacy, and that a confederacy has to be renewed on a daily basis. (lest it fly apart) If the people of the EU are now able to see some negative things about their bureaucrats, and if they are now motivated to daily reform, then that would be a good thing. It was a British female prime minister, expressing Euro-skepticism, who said that something about European democracy working best if people could speak a common language, rather than default to relying on bureaucrats. If only I spoke another language, then I could see what the EU people are saying. Pedro: 8220haters hating haters8221 Calling a bigot 8220bigot8221 isnt hate. But thanks for playing this round of 8220bigotry shell game8221. Greg: 8220But thanks for playing this round of bigotry shell game.8221 My pleasure. Next. Damn I8217m a total failure. On JS8217s previous thread I predicted 51:49 and it turned out 52:48. No, please don8217t ask me to pick the US presidential elections (or even who the two main contenders will be). I8217m not worthy. Back to Brexit. As usual the markets totally over-reacted to the result. Most, if not all, of the losses will be reversed until some leak that throws all the overpaid financial market traders into another tizzy. There is so much water to go under the bridge before the UK (maybe) leaves the EU that making drastic moves and changes now are going to be more destructive than waiting and seeing what happens. The EU. They could decide to 8220punish8221 Britain as a warning to other potential absconders 8211 8220Nothing personal Britain but we have to make an example8221. Or they could revamp the whole structure make it more democratic and re-define the EU vs countries relationship. As an example should the EU set school curriculums or is that a national function But I8217m not very optimistic about the EU changing because the ones doing the changing will all be looking over their shoulders at their next election. On the other hand all current governments (around the world) should be looking in the mirror and thinking about Brexit, Trump, Sanders, et al. Are these governments just another bunch of professional entitled politicians who couldn8217t give a rat8217s arse about the voters except for trotting out the obligatory platitudes come election time. Is there a demagogue just waiting to pounce So my prediction: 8211 Britain will dither about invoking Article 50 there will be some back-room dealing the EU will make some changes and Britain will stay in the EU. Oh and lots of fans will get a lot of use as Leavers 8220do stuff8221. kiwisteve: 8220Britain will dither about invoking Article 50 there will be some back-room dealing the EU will make some changes and Britain will stay in the EU.8221 Interesting point, which raises the following question: Why wouldn8217t every remaining member of the EU attempt the same thing: Vote to leave if only to get just as good a deal that Britain got through 8220back-room8221 dealing Might the EU apparatus be more inclined to make Brexit an obviously painful event, if only to deter copy-cat behavior Pedro OK, I8217m probably a bit of an optimist and seeing changes to the EU being changes for the betterment of the EU and not just sweeteners for Britain. If deals are made and they benefit Britain only then naturally there will be other countries that pick up and run with the same game plan. Why wouldn8217t they Making Brexit as painful as possible is going to do damage. As an example what is going to happen to BMW8217s subsidiary Rolls Royce Others on this thread have mentioned other examples: 8211 university research, Airbus, and others. An acrimonious split will have effects in electorates of politicians in the EU8217s members 8211 politicians who would prefer to be re-elected. Richard Fernandez summarizes it better than I, The EU and the Obama administration have been 8220stuck on stupid8221 the last 8 years and people are reacting. Obama is, by far, the worst president in my lifetime and everyone else8217s. The 8220damage8221 which has happened in the last couple of days is not likely to continue if Britain fosters a Free Market (meaning few regulations and low taxes). But I doubt the leaders in Britain are that intelligent (our President isn8217t that intelligent to give you an idea) so I expect a 8220recovery8221 like we have: low 8220official8221 unemployment rate but the lowest labor force participation rate in decades. But it will be a 8220recovery8221 of sorts. I expect the EU to further break up it8217s just a bunch of incompetent, wanna-be dictators fucking everything they touch up. Oh, and to those using 8220dog whistle8221 arguments: there is no 8220dog whistle8221 among the Right but using that phrase shows that you are a person filled with hate, Oikophobia, and bigotry. It8217s awesome. The UK voted to leave. It8217s democracy at its finest and yet the arrogant elite call us stupid. They have no answers so they resort to insulting the little people. Personally, I8217m delighted to be out. We have thrown off the shackles of an oppressive EU oligarchy that has the appearance of democracy but no substance therein. This bit deleted for being maybe a smidge racist and also not particularly accurate with regard to the EUUK relationship 8211 JS As for John Oliver, he8217s a comedian (not a particularly good one either) and not to be taken too seriously. Jon H says: 8220Theres a whole lot of voters in California who will vote for novelty, entertainment value, and lolz, And Arnold didnt have half the entertainment value that Trump has for nihilists who dont care about real-world effects.8221 Is Hillary Clinton heavily favored to win California Yes. Am I, a Californian, going to make sure to vote for her anyway You8217d better believe it. Yeah, I watched John Oliver hoping for another John Stewart (and Trevor Noah). Unfortunately, John Stewart was a unique talent. Back to JO, his basic argument against the Brexit folk is that their numbers are off. He shows that Britain doesn8217t contribute 350 million pounds a week they contribute 190 million pounds a week. And he shows that there aren8217t 109 EU regulations on pillows there8217s 106. So, the Brexit arguments are BS he claims. No sir, he obviously never studied logic or argument style. He didn8217t nullify their arguments he showed that their numbers were off. But that8217s usual for JO the guy just ain8217t that bright or funny. Comments off for the night 8212 see you tomorrow morning Update: Comments back on. Remember to be polite to other folks, please. Seems to me that the big take-away for US voters is that young people really need to vote. If you8217re young you have a lot more of the future to live, so you should take it very seriously. Vote every time, vote for all those boring local elections, even if you don8217t understand the issues that well, just get in the habit of voting always. Looking at the Brexit vote, young people had the most to lose but had a lower turnout and might have changed the outcome by a trivial effort. I think that informs the other big take-away. Never assume that other people are going to achieve your political goals for you and thereby free you to play games with your vote or skipping the election. I8217m not one of the blame-Nader-voters-forever group, but I do recall how, during that election, a bunch of Naderites had A Cunning Plan. They were going to use the web to 8220trade votes8221 between local Nader votes and those in solid Democratic states so that their 8220protest8221 vote would get registered there. This idea that you going to outmaneuver voting patterns and register a protest is doubly wrong. The first assumes that you have perfect knowledge and that other voters aren8217t playing their own games that mess up Your Plan. Risky if you ask me. The second assumes that there is some parental 8220them8221 that registers your protest and does something for you because you protested. Kinda like a 8-year-old thinking 8220when I run away, then they8217ll miss me and give me the pony I deserve8221 but I don8217t think there is a 8220them8221 in this case who gives a hoot. Political campaigns seek the voters that help them win, a protest means nothing because the next election is a different game and you8217ve shown yourself to be an unreliable supporter. Did the next election post-Nader win anything for the Naderites8217 protest No, they got nothing. Well, we all got W. This impulse to protest with your vote never seems to achieves anything. It might work if you can get something like a majority of the party to protest, but that is not common. For example, if the Busters get You-Know-Who elected, then they8217ll be considered even worse that the Naderites. If the opposite occurs, then they will be considered a group who protested for nothing. There8217s no upside I can see. Democratic party people are not going to court Busters next election. You want to change the party Join it and work to change it into what you want, just like the previous generations who actually changed things in the party. Always vote in every election and don8217t try to be clever with your vote. Martinghoul: Suppose, like me, you were of the opinion that the Remain vote would result in a path which is significantly more dangerous and destructive than anything Nigel Farage could reasonably come up with. Would you have voted in favor of what you believe to be a worse outcome, just because you find Nigel Farages xenophobic views distasteful In other words, if I were you, would I vote the way you voted I decline to play the trick question game. I have yet to see what you see on that path. I do not know what you consider significantly more dangerous and destructive. What I do see is historical precedents for those xeonophobic views and where they lead, and I find them far more than merely distasteful. Scorpius: Obama is, by far, the worst president in my lifetime and everyone elses. I think I must be a few years older than you are. FranK: Seems to me that the big take-away for US voters is that young people really need to vote. This, this, this. And again THIS, for those who think my vote doesnt count. All that having been said, I do think that the cry for I didnt really mean it, lets do it over and its not fair, it didnt turn out the way I wanted it to are missing the whole point of a democracy. On the other hand, the do-over petition has forced a discussion in Parliament, and the result of that may be that Parliament declines to consider the referendum binding. In which case there will be no Brexit after all. This may comfort Cornwall, at least, which voted to leave as long as they could retain all the benefits of remaining (and is now wondering indignantly why they can8217t have their subsidy and spend it too). This is a vast change, and whichever way it goes, half a nation will be unhappy with the results. I wouldn8217t regard the comments of a hard-left nationalist Scot as being particularly valuable on the Brexit. Martinghoul et. apologists So what8217s this After all the preciousness of how just because Leave ran posters of ranks upon rank of Syrian immigrants, and touting the terrors of EU border access, and Nigel Farage talked, we all can8217t assume a damn thing about why Leave voted leave 8211 but now that you have been criticized, you can safely assume that Stay was a band of irrational ninnies Please. Also, Steve C. remember this: people mentioning the cold facts about some of what Leave did is not the same as comparing you to Hitler. It8217s simply saying that these things happened, and the rest of us have no obligation to pretend they didn8217t simply because you don8217t like having it pointed it out you were on the same side as Farage. The rest of us have no obligation to forget who else shouted 8220Britain First.8221 I am not sure why Americans care all that much about the Brexit. The market going down is temporary. These kinds of fluctuations happen. I put my money into Vanguard and other low cost mutual funds. I put the same amount in every month for 15 years. So I really don8217t care. Pound weakening hurts our exports to Britain, but Britain isn8217t that huge of a trade partner. Its also not that big of a drop. I have wondered for a while, why Britain keeps the pound so strong. Yeah it makes imports cheap, but it encourages moving jobs over seas and makes exports expensive. I personally don8217t get it. It is again not my problem. I have really wondered this for a while. I don8217t know how trade deals work with Britain and the EU. I am not remotely concerned about working out trade deals with the UK so its basically the same thing we had with the EU. Given the size of the US economy I would think we would be a priority even though they would likely have alot of trade deals to work out. Its the UK. Its not like they are difficult to work with on this. I really don8217t think this affects the US much at all. Lets face it, the US isn8217t going to join a body like the EU. We would join an American EU either. Its not in our culture. By nature the US has low trade barriers anyway. I don8217t get why either side in the US is worked up over this. I really don8217t care. The US economy is 25 of the worlds economy. I am not concerned about this having a long term affect on us. I am not a liberal as Scalzi can attest to. I am a true conservatve. We have been telling the public that Trump is an idiot long before liberals jumped on bored. This will have no impact on the fall election in the US at all. Keeping Trump out is why the Republican part needs to move to the right. Trump is not a conservative. He is not remotely close to being a conservative. Most of his positions are to the left of Hillary Clinton. This should be obvious considering that ALOT of Bernie Sanders supporters are threatening to support him. They would not be supporting a conservatve. Well, I think it would be hypothetically possible for a group with a policy they thought was good for sound economic reasons to attempt to gain support for that policy by pandering to racism and xenophobia. It wouldn8217t make the policy racist or xenophobic, and some of the people voting for the policy would presumably be voting for sound economic reasons and wouldn8217t be racist or xenophobic. The problem with this scenario is that using racism and xenophobia to promote a policy strengthens racism and xenophobia. It makes it more acceptable to express racism and xenophobia in public, encourages people with those traits to act on them instead of trying to restrain them, and inculcates the traits in young people who are still learning about the world and forming their views. And if you vote, for sound economic reasons, for a policy being promoted by pandering to racism and xenophobia you are doing your part to strengthen those things. Perhaps that was a cost you were willing to pay to enact a sound economic policy, and you are hoping to weaken racism and xenophobia on other days with other actions, and okay, sometimes we make hard choices and maybe you can still make up for it good luck. But please don8217t pretend your vote didn8217t do that. That8217s kind of annoying. Peter You8217ve got some obvious cognitive dissonance going on even within single comments. In your post here whatever. scalzi20160624a-few-thoughts-post-brexitcomment-817894 you state the belief that this will not have any significant effect the ability to trade with the rest of Europe and the World. Then you go on to say: 8220My biggest concern relates to our relatives in Scotland. Their politicians are going to talk at length about exporting 42 of trade exports to the EU and the impact of changes in the terms of that trade, without discussing how many multiples of that value is traded with England, Wales and Northern Ireland which would be lost of Scotland chose to leave the United Kingdom and apply to be part of the European Union.8221 First, if 42 of Scotland8217s exports goes to the EU, even if the entire remainder stays within the U. K. (it does not) that still only makes 58, not 8220many multiples8221. But more importantly, if you don8217t think that leaving the EU is going to have any significant change on how the U. K. trades with the rest of the world, why would Scotland feel any negative trade repercussions from independence Either the U. K. miraculously maintains free trading relationships with the world, in which case Scotland doesn8217t see any change in access, or else you are implicitly saying members of the EU such as an independent Scotland will have a hard time importing and exporting from the U. K. I anxiously await the day Guess shows up to tell us about something they do care about. Today is not that day. Sooz: In identifying Charlie as a Scot, are you accepting his choice of residence or unaware that he is from Yorkshire originally So, here8217s one of the saddest and most head-slapping things that I8217ve run across so far. The brief summery is this: In the late 708217s, the U. K. joins the European Economic Community (the precursor to the EU). One of the industries really pushing for this is the British automotive industry because they really want access to the rest of the European market. The British automotive industry then promptly goes out of business because it turns out the rest of Europe, and the Germans in particular, made much better cars. However That8217s roughly the same point that the Asian automakers and American brands like Ford started investing in Europe, and since there were all these empty car factories and unemployed automotive workers sitting around they all set up shop in Briton and have been making cars there for the last thirty years and happily exporting them all over Europe. Of the cars built in Briton, roughly 10 actually end up in the British market. You8217ve got Honda, Nissan, Toyota, Ford, everyone. So, you8217ve got these areas that are major car manufacturing hubs, with lots of secondary industries built up around them and generations of people employed. All full of blue-collar industrial workers. Guess which way they voted Yep They all voted to put themselves out of work By large margins in most cases. Sunderland, the which is a major Nissan center, was one of the earliest and largest wins for the Leave side, 61-39. If this was a movie, it would be a cross between a Eugene Levy farce and a Coen Brothers tragedy. Actually, I8217d watch that. While I respect that you and others suffered as a result of the outcome, I have to wonder at the level of hatred and demonization of the 17 million odd voters who voted Leave. It8217s one thing to dislike or disagree with a choice, but to label everyone who views an issue differently as racist bigots is fundamentally disrespectful and harmful to democracy. Democracy requires voters to vote, which I agree is vitally important. It also requires that people respect the outcome. Each side makes their case to voters, the votes are cast, and one side wins. It may or may not be the side we wanted to win, but as participants in democracy, we accept the results, and we move on. To do anything less is inherently undemocratic. I am a UK remain voter and deeply disappointed by this result. I8217m sad because I think the majority of leave voters voted not because they really care about sovereignty or because they are racist, but because they are unhappy with the status quo. The concern about immigration is really a proxy for other issues, not least the impact of continued austerity. The tragedy is that leaving the EU will I think weaken us without fixing the things that people are worried about. Stronger leadership from Labour could have helped make that clear. The lesson JS is drawing, that people in the US need to vote and vote seriously because there is a real risk Trump could win, is not wrong. But there is one major difference: if Trump becomes president, the US population will have an opportunity to choose again in 4 years. The UK decision to leave the EU is one way: even if we might conceivably be allowed to rejoin at some time in the future the current special deals we have would not be on offer. I wrote that not everyone who voted to leave the EU were racist idjits: Nickzi replied: 8220Not when they vote for the same racist and xenophobic campaign run by dangerous idjits, it isnt.8221 So let me confirm that I understand your logic. A bill is proposed to clean up the polluted water supply, feed the starving, and reward those who provide jobs to the poor. Sounds good, and just about everyone supports it. But then a well-known racist endorses the bill, so now we must vote against it. Sure, that makes sense. Nickzi: 8220Its a matter of facing the facts, rather than piously pretending that voting for Nigel Farage is not voting for. why, yes. Nigel Farage. If you vote for a campaign based on racism and xenophobia, you deserve to be treated as someone who votes for racism and xenophobia8221 Ah, I see the subtle flaw in my logic. I wasn8217t paying close enough attention, and thought the referendum was about leaving the EU. But you assure me that it was really about voting for Nigel Farage. Minha culpa. Guess I need to read the newsfeeds more carefully. Silly journalists getting the story so wrong. Xopher Halftongue says: It8217s going to be nice not to be The Stupidest Country In The World8230for a few months, at least. A couple of things: 1. Someone who says 8220Obama is the worst President in my lifetime8221 is either too young to really remember Bush, or has values in such sharp contrast to mine that no potential for a meeting of the minds exists. He8217s the best in my lifetime, and that goes back to Eisenhower (not that I remember him). 2. Our beloved Chuck Tingle (odd how many fans he8217s gained since his hostile nomination by the RSHD gang, isn8217t it) has weighed in . 3.Apparently it may be the case that the UK needs the individual permission of Scotland and Northern Ireland (who overwhelmingly voted Remain). If so, the whole thing could be off, and every sensible person in the world would breathe a sigh of relief. 4. I have absolutely NO sympathy for the numbskulls who voted Leave as a protest, and are shocked, shocked that it won. They8217re fucking idiots and deserve to be jeered at wherever they gomdashexcept that pissing them off might mean they pitch a similar childish tantrum in the next round (whether it takes the form of a new referendum or a general election). 5. Ditto for voters who are 8220tired of listening to experts.8221 The Leave campaigners have admitted that they lied about a bunch of what they promised ahead of time (not that they admit to admitting it). The experts8217 predictions for the initial period have come true in spades. I8217d hope that some of the 8220I8217m going to vote based on my feeeeeelings8221 crowd will grow better sense soon, except that I know people, and it8217s more likely they8217ll double down. 6. If US voters don8217t take a lesson from this we will, once again, be the Stupidest Country In The World. I8217m talking to you, Sanders voters who plan to vote for Trump in the general, because you8217re pissed off at not getting your way in the primary (I voted for Bernie in the primary too). I8217m talking to you, 8220it won8217t matter anyway8221 non-voters. I8217m talking to you 8220I hate Trump, but my conscience won8217t let me vote for Clinton8221 voters. Your conscience apparently WILL let you allow the country to slide into ruin, thousands of families to be destroyed, and the country to give up the idea of religious freedom, at least in immigration. Sometimes there isn8217t a perfectly righteous choice. Adults realize this, and make the least-wrong decision. And despite what you (and most people) believe, passively-bad behavior does not leave you blameless not voting isn8217t any purer than voting wrong. The adult who calmly watches a toddler wander into traffic is guilty of second-degree murder (depraved indifference) in many jurisdictions. 8220But my conscience won8217t let me touch someone else8217s child8221 will not exonerate them. Don8217t get me wrong I am not looking at anything through rose coloured glasses and I don8217t think that the EU is the Ultimate Lawful Good 8211 but it is what we have, and it was ballast for a stable Europe, and I can8217t help but see this as throwing a bunch too much sand out of the balloon and we8217re off for a pretty high wild and uncontrolled ride now. A few thoughts: 1) I don8217t see how the UK weathers this as the UK. Scotland is gearing up for Independence Referendum 2 and this time they will probably get it. Norther Ireland is eyeing the rest of Ireland proper and figuring out that now might be a good time to get together with the rest of their islans (all the while the rest of the UK is now apparently googling 8220what is the EU8221 and 8220Irish passport8221. Well the Irish can get an 8220irish passport8221 now. And I can8217t see why they wouldn8217t. Wales8230 I think Wales voted out because of an old old grudge against England which they have been nursing ever since the last Llewellyn and the land grab of Edward I, and at some point they8217ll thumb their nose at England and break off too. Say goodbye to things like Great Britain and teh United Kingdom I think they8217re currently bathed in the rosy light of the sun finally setting over the British empire. 2) I8217m hearing a few people say that the referendum is 8220non binding8221 and that Parliament can still veto it. I don8217t see how that would work, frankly. The half who voted out aren8217t going to take being disenfranchised like this very well and the half that voted to stay in the first place are going to be rightfully disgusted that they were put through this at all. There will be riots in the streets either way. I think they8217re stuck with it. 3) I don8217t know how the EU will survive this. Already a bunch of countries are apparently eyeing their own referenda. There goes the euro, there goes borderless Europe, we8217re back to a dangerous powderkeg, and we all know that both previous world wars started here somewhere. Hello again. But this time we8217re way past putting two armies in the field and letting them duke it out between them. This time war is different. It8217s fought by insurgency, and in cyberland, and by drone. THis time it8217s the civilians who suffer and die. MASSIVELY. I don8217t know if our civilisation can weather a world war like this and stay remotely intact. Maybe I am overreacting to everything and it8217s all going to be oh ho hum situation as usual. But I honestly don8217t know how to judge. We8217re squarely in thepart of the map where it says 8220Here Be Dragons8221. I certainly don8217t feel hatred for people who voted leave, nor do I demonise them. After all, they believed what they were told about how they would solve all their problems by leaving the EU, and that voting out would result in the UK immediately becoming richer because it wouldn8217t have to pay all that money to the EU, and they voted because they thought that would happen. And then they woke up to find sterling through the floor, notwithstanding the central banks spending a great deal of money to prop up the pound, foreign investors pulling massive amounts of capital out of the UK which immediately threatens jobs, and leading members of Brexit admitting that all the stuff about putting money into the NHS was 8216a mistake8217, and that BRexit wouldn8217t reduce immigration anyway. Neither Gove nor Johnson has announced any plans at all about what will happen, probably because they haven8217t actually got any plans, which again must be difficult for people who voted thinking they would sort it all out. Instead they8217ve got the Bank of England pledging to provide 250 billion in cash to try to keep disaster from segueing into catastrophe, and a distinctly unsympathetic rest of the world noting that we did it, and we are going to have to live with it. This is a very long way from what they thought would happen, but it underlines the fact that actions have consequences, as Scalzi reminds us. There seem to have been some people voting to leave as a protest vote, thinking that there was no chance of it happening, and it would give the politicians a kicking. Instead it8217s the population getting a kicking as our economy crumbles, and we are going to suffer the consequences for many years to come8230 Hello Do love your writing. Seriously though, I voted out. The EU does all these free publications and I spent about a month going through all before I made my decision. UK does 44 of our exports to the EU. We account for 8 of EU total exports. Pro rata that means we spend 5 times more in the EU than the EU spends on us. Germany accounts for 3. You could say it8217s because we are an island but put in trade tariffs and we just go elsewhere. Can the EU afford to lose 8 of their total export trade So, the trade threats would backfire. Secondly, we are the third largest population in the EU but if you compare what we pay in with what we get out, we are the biggest funder. Who is going to make up the shortfall The EU creates directives and regulations but it is unregulated and undemocratic. Would the US tolerate 5 presidents, none elected Going from memory here but there were so many things that just made my jaw drop. I am pro Europe but anti the EU. It is outdated and reflects an old boys club with so many people getting back handers and no financial regulator governing how much the EU can spend on itself centrally 8211 or how it spends that money. Europe is like a class of students who each come from a different background. You need a really good teacher to pull them together and the EU is not that. Richard Norton says: Yes Stevie Too, II like FranKs: Always vote in every election and dont try to be clever with your vote. When Ive read English histories Ive imagined them normally as bumping around crazily but often ending up in reasonable situations, many times despite original designs. I wonder if this isnt that latitudinarianism of theirs at work Im not condoning idiocy or clever voting anywhere, just opining that I hope the luck of those over the Pond can continue. But I wonder everywhere, about what I consider Party-Codependency both in Britain and here (U. S.). Havent we had enough stupidity simply because something originates from an enemy party From personal experience I seen Party Hardliners get super complicated as they accusedefend things, especially in their storytelling of events. Yes, I vote one party almost always, but I still try to view things FIRST ethically, not by party. It seems Hardliners often forego the consideration. FranK may be right. Clever voting for any reason (including Third Party voting) might become an ultimate stupidity. I cant believe Im using Howard Cosell for reasonableness, but he once said that in a boxing match a child often knows who won, despite all the fighting points that experts determine. If you just know your vote, then, maybe you should just do it. Point of Order Question: John, would it be possible to have these comments numbered somehow It8217s quiet a read and and can get confusing, knowing where I8217ve left off and later want to start back in. scorpious: 8220Obama is, by far, the worst president in my lifetime8221 From a purely logical perspective, the only way that can be a true statement is if you are less than 8 years old. Although, that might explain some things. 1) Stop panicing. Panic is the only thing that can cause harm right now, because literally nothing else has happened. 2) The volatility in the markets is due entirely to the markets guessing wrong on Brexit. If the polls had been 6040 for Leave heading into this, you wouldn8217t have seen the fluctuations that is panicking y8217all. 3) Well done, Britain. The EU has been running roughshod over its members for years, and the exit of the UK will serve as a wakeup call to these guys. That just because they dictate how things will be does not mean people will accept how things will be. 4) Everyone who has made a blanket statement (looking at you, Charlie Strauss) that everyone for Leave is a bigoted racist should be ashamed of themselves. writingmywayoutofdepression I8217ve seen variations of your reasoning from other Leave supporters and I just don8217t get it. How is it that the EU losing the benefits of 8 of its member trade is terrible and massive negotiating leverage, while the U. K. losing 44 of its trade is no big deal with nothing serious to worry about If one accepts that the British have the democratic right to vote to leave the EU, logically one must accept the possibility that they may do so. As to the consequences, it8217s a bit early to play Chicken Little. At the moment we are haemorrhaging money as investors scramble to salvage what they can the markets and the government are entirely focussed on that. We are getting a lot of help from central banks around the world because they are afraid that we will take everyone down with us, but as I8217m sure you realise there is no sympathy whatsoever for what people rightly see as a self inflicted injury. We will continue to haemorrhage money in the years to come since the timespan of investments vary, but investors neither forgive nor forget a politician promising to apologise if he got the finances wrong 8211 Boris Johnson 8211 cuts absolutely no ice with institutional investors. This was entirely predictable the financial media spent the months before the referendum explaining what would happen, which is why the Tory MPs who were so utterly convinced that BRexit was a wonderful idea have since adopted an omert policy. Even the most mathematically challenged of individuals tends to notice that 250,000,000,000 is rather a lot of money, and there8217s no sign of anyone wanting to do anything more than protect their own economies. Again, that8217s perfectly predictable as well there8217s a very big difference between offering a helping hand to those who unexpectedly get into difficulties through no fault of their own, and those who have completely ignored all the very sensible advice they have been given by people who wish them well. All in all, the take away message for US voters is that you are free to ignore reality if you choose, but reality won8217t ignore you8230 writingmywayoutofdepression 8220UK does 44 of our exports to the EU. We account for 8 of EU total exports. Pro rata that means we spend 5 times more in the EU than the EU spends on us. Germany accounts for 3. You could say its because we are an island but put in trade tariffs and we just go elsewhere.8221 And yet again I ask where Contrary to what Guess said earlier, the US actually has some fairly hefty tariffs and trade restrictions and Obama has publicly said that the UK negotiating alone goes to the back of the queue. Obama is already fighting to get the TPPA through, nobody (democrat or republican)has the political capital to force through another unplanned trade deal for a good long while. The commonwealth countries are all likely to trade but they8217ve also been negotiating a complex web of trade agreements with a variety of countries, they8217re unlikely to drop those in favour of the UK. China will definitely be happy to negotiate but they will hold the upper hand and they will use it (and if you thought the xenophobes hated Europe, just wait til Chinese organisations start buying up huge chunks of farmland from bankrupt farmers). The bottom line is that the rest of the world has been playing this game for a long time and the UK is very much out of practice and does not hold the leverage you seem to think it does. I obviously wasn8217t clear enough in my criticism of the SNP statistics when I spoke about Scotland. The 42 figure is the number quoted by Scottish politicians 8211 but avoids talking about exports from the country of Scotland to the rest of the UK. The actual numbers are: Scottish exports to the rest of the UK are 48.5bn in 2014, other EU countries 11.6bn, rest of world 15.2bn Source gov. scotTopicsStatisticsBrowseEconomyExportsESSPublication In terms of free trade, I expect and hope that the UK can negotiate tariff - free trade with the EU, but I am happy to work within WTO guidelines. However, I don8217t trust the Scottish politicians to talk about the real numbers and impacts of an independent Scotland being part of the EU when they8217re agitating for a new independence referendum. Peter 8220In terms of free trade, I expect and hope that the UK can negotiate tariff - free trade with the EU, but I am happy to work within WTO guidelines8221 Why do you think the EU is likely to negotiate tariff free trade with the UK when they8217ve essentially got you over a barrel and have an incentive to make leaving the EU look like an extremely unattractive option Another contribution to Scalzi8217s theme: the most senior British Commissioner in the EU, responsible for financial services, has resigned: 8216Conservative peer Lord Hill told the BBC: 8220When something as huge as the decision in the British referendum takes place, actions have consequences.82218216 A Commisioner from Latvia has replaced him, though Lord Hill is staying long enough to ease the handover process. I appreciate that this will piss off all those who believe that actions do not have consequences, and that anyone suggesting otherwise must be doing so because they hate insert term of your choice here but we8217re back to that thing called reality. As Annamal has noted, facts seem to be distinctly thin on the ground in Writingmywayoutofdepression8217s posts reality is unwelcome there. After all, it might disturb cherished beliefs, and that would never do8230 Interesting read 8211 Brexit may seem an odd choice to an outsider, but to many in the UK the EU is a failed abomination, an anti-democratic fat-catocentric monstrosity. The statement that the UK necessarily has to abide by EU regulations regarding the free movement of labor if it wants free trade is baseless. This was asserted in the John Oliver Last Week Tonight clip by Dr. Thomas Sampson. prof. of economics at the London School of Economics. FWIW, the exchange went like this: Interviewer: 8216Leaving the EU: Does that mean the UK gets control of its borders8221 Sampson: 8216It could do sic, if we were to completely cut ourselves off from the rest of Europe. We could certainly choose to end migration from the rest of the EU. But if we want to remain part of the single market, that means accepting free mobility of labour, both into and out of the UK.8217 Oliver: 8216Of course Because if Britain wants a good trade deal with the EU, it8217a probably going to have to abide by most of its rules.8217 Oliver goes on to observe that, by the same logic, British firms wanting to deal with EU entities will still have to contend with EU laws and regulations. You can certainly argue that Prof. Sampson is incorrect on this matter lying squarely within his professional expertise. Personally, I8217d bet he8217s entirely correct. But time will tell. Further to that, I hear rather a lot from Brexit partisans about seeking safe harbour in the 8216Norway Model8217. I happen to have been following the Norwegian-language press Jeg er en amerikaner, men familien min var fra Norge. (I8217m a Yank, but my family8217s from Norway.) This included very skeptical comments from PM Solberg printed in Dagsavisen on referendum day. She said (translating): The British wont like having to go along with EU policy without having any influence over it. And thats what will happen if the British leave the EU but also want to retain access to its inner market. Were a small country, not a large empire, with a different sort of faith in ourselves. As a small country, were used to others deciding. I8217ve already warned British colleagues that they also risk having to abide by EU rules in order to gain market access, without being able to influence those rules any longer if they revoke their EU membership. Norway needed the EU market access that ES the EU agreement giving Norway access to the EEA gives us, but I have believed all along (since the ES deal was struck in 1994, when Norwegians last voted to remain outside the EU) that the ES agreement leaves Norway with a democratic loss. The British wont like the Norwegian model with our ES agreement. They would go from a situation where youre part of making decisions, to standing outside and only accepting what the other member countries have decided. I am not sure why Americans care all that much about the Brexit. Among other reasons, some of us have family in, and ties to, Europe. And in some cases, even specifically in Blighty, you know. Last time Europe had a major unity problem, the Luftwaffe firebombed my family8217s city to a cinder, and our country wasn8217t even a combatant. And I do believe that Americans, not just Euro-Americans (alongside our Canadian cousins and many others from around the world), bled for you during said major unity problem. So, you8217ll pardon us Americans if we worry just about about pneumonia epidemics, on many of the times when Europe sneezes. (Did you know 8216Blighty8217 is from Hindi It8217s a corruption of the word for 8216foreign8217.) Comments off for the evening. Back in the morning but there8217s a small chance they8217ll have timed out (for the semi-hiatus, the message threads close after two days). Update: Turned back on but timed out. Sorry Comments are closed.
Comments
Post a Comment